Several thousand dairy producers gathered in Madison, Wisconsin, a few weeks ago to attend World Dairy Expo. Nearly 500 exhibitors participated in one of the largest dairy trade shows, which featured a wide range of products and services from all sectors of the industry. But which of the choices is the best investment?
Nothing is guaranteed. Even well-researched products may not perform to expectations every single time, but you can improve your bottom line by purchasing inputs that have the best record of success. “The proof pyramid” helps us understand the five levels of proof that a product will perform to its expectations.
Anecdotal evidence
The most common driver of purchasing decisions is anecdotal evidence. It is the bottom layer of the pyramid because it is the most widely available information. It is also the easiest to obtain and is usually in the form of a testimonial.
Anecdotal evidence is not backed up with data, but a positive (or negative) outcome has been communicated. This practical experience could be some of the best advice you get.
At other times, timing or misinterpretation of the results can make a product look successful (or unsuccessful). Your circumstances and your farm may be completely different. Anecdotal advice should not be ignored but needs to be considered with caution.
Uncontrolled study
The second level of the proof pyramid is an uncontrolled study where data is collected showing a before-and-after scenario. A change was made, and the parameter in question also changed. Was this a cause-and-effect relationship, or did other factors change at the same time and affect the outcome? This doesn’t mean you should totally discard any data that was collected but understand its limitations.
Controlled study
The third level of proof attempts to hold all other variables constant, and only the item in question changes. For example, in a controlled study, the product may be tested on one pen of cows while another pen of similar cows receives all the same other inputs but does not receive the product. However, the question remains: Is the difference in results a true difference or just due to chance? Without statistics, we are not sure, and the observed results of a controlled study can still be misleading.
Controlled study with statistics
The fourth level of proof adds statistics to the controlled study. Your confidence level in the results goes up with a statistical difference and removes the potential for random chance. Often, results are shown with a measure of probability.
Peer review
At the very top of the proof pyramid is the fifth level of evaluation referred to as peer review. During peer review, which is used in the publication of manuscripts and research results, experts knowledgeable about the subject matter scrutinize the process and results. Peer-reviewed scientific information is least affected by the bias that may exist when collecting and summarizing the data. It is also the most expensive, which means this type of data isn’t as readily available.
Ask for data
When presented with a purchasing decision, ask to see the data behind the product. This doesn’t necessarily mean you should pass up a great product just because it isn’t supported by peer-reviewed data, but be a little more cautious because the results are less defined.
It’s a high-risk, high-reward concept. Without the assurance of higher levels of proof, you will want a higher expected return on your investment because of its elevated uncertainty. With a higher level of proof, you’re more likely to see the predicted results on your farm and can more easily determine a product’s value accordingly.
Barry Visser is a nutritionist for Vita Plus.
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