Milk production continues dramatic increase

There was a lot of talk about affordability as Thanksgiving approached this year. Various polls indicate consumers are not happy and are blaming the president, but the American Farm Bureau Federation’s annual cost survey says otherwise.

“Cooking a Thanksgiving dinner for your friends and family will cost less than last year, marking the third straight year of price declines,” the AFB said in its 40th annual Thanksgiving dinner survey. The average cost of staples that make up a classic holiday feast for 10 is $55.18 or about $5.52 per person, according to the AFB, down 5% from 2024. However, “three years of declines don’t fully erase dramatic increases that led to a record-high cost of $64.05 in 2022.”

While dairy’s primary cost contribution, whipping cream and whole milk, is up, half of the ingredients in the survey declined in price, including dinner rolls and stuffing. The turkey is down about 16% and helped bring down the overall cost. “While the wholesale price for fresh turkey is up from 2024, grocery stores are featuring Thanksgiving deals and attempting to draw consumer demand back to turkey, leading to lower retail prices for a holiday bird,” said the AFB.

Meanwhile, milk production continues to gush on farms across the U.S., thanks to continuing gains in output per cow and rising cow numbers. The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s preliminary October data pegged output at 19.47 billion pounds, up 3.7% from October 2024 and following a 3.8% gain in September. The 24-state total hit 18.727 billion, up 3.9% after gaining 4.0% in September.

September output in the 50 states was revised down 34 million pounds from last month’s report to 18.956 billion, up 3.8% from a year ago, instead of the 4.0% originally reported. The 24-state total was revised down 34 million pounds, to 18.2 billion, up 4% from a year ago instead of the 4.2% reported.

October cow numbers totaled 9.575 million head, down 6,000 from September but 208,000 or 2.2% more than a year ago. The September count was unchanged. The 24-state head count, at 9.138 million, was down 7,000 from September and 211,000 or 2.4% above a year ago. The September count was revised down 1,000 head.

Output per cow averaged 2,033 pounds, up 29 pounds or 1.4% from a year ago in the 50 states and averaging 2,049 pounds in the top 24, up 30 pounds or 1.5%. Revisions reduced September’s national and 24-state average by 4 pounds.

California put 3.4 billion pounds of milk in the tank in October, up 221 million or 6.9% from a year ago and following a 2.4% increase in September. 

Cow numbers were up 4,000 head in October, and output per cow was up a whopping 125 pounds from a year ago, when it was dealing with avian influenza. Wisconsin output totaled 2.7 billion pounds, up 49 million or 1.8% on 14,000 more cows and a 15-pound gain per cow.

Idaho produced 1.55 billion pounds, up 102 million or 7.0% from a year ago, thanks to 49,000 more cows offsetting a 5-pound drop per cow. Kansas continued to show the biggest percentage increase, up 21.2% on 37,000 more cows and a 15-pound gain per cow.

 Michigan was up 4.3% on 20,000 more cows, offsetting a 5-pound drop per cow. Minnesota was up 3.0%, on 10,000 more cows and a 15-pound gain per cow.

New Mexico, one of only three states showing a decline in milk output, was down 4.4% on a 35-pound drop per cow and 7,000 fewer cows milked.

New York was up 4.0% on 18,000 more cows and a 25-pound gain per cow. Oregon was up 4.8% on 5,000 more cows and a 10-pound gain per cow.

Pennsylvania was off 0.5% on 5,000 fewer cows milked, although output per cow was up 10 pounds. South Dakota was up 9.3% on 20,000 more cows; output per cow was unchanged.

Texas producers put 1.55 billion pounds in the tank, up 44 million or 2.9% from a year ago, thanks to 26,000 more cows. Output per cow was down 20 pounds.

Vermont was up 2.4%, on 3,000 more cows. Output per cow was unchanged.

Washington State continues to lag, down 7.3% on 21,000 fewer cows. Output per cow was up 15 pounds.

You may recall that August milk production was up 3.4% from a year ago, and milk components were up as well, leaving plenty to convert into cheese, butter, powder and other such products. The USDA’s August dairy products report, the first one in over two months, shows where the milk went.

Cheese output totaled 1.202 billion pounds, down 1.2% from July but up 0.5% from August 2024. Output in the 8-month period hit 9.68 billion pounds, up 1.6% from 2024.

Wisconsin vats provided 298.8 million pounds, down 1.1% from July but up 0.7% from a year ago. California produced 196.4 million pounds, down 2.1% from July and 7.8% below a year ago. Idaho cheese, at 85.7 million pounds, was down 6.7% from July and off 1.1% from a year ago. New Mexico produced 73.9 million pounds, down 1.2% from July and 16.7% below a year ago.

Mozzarella production totaled 404.8 million pounds, up 0.9% from a year ago, with year-to-date output hitting 3.2 billion pounds, up 1.7% from 2024.

American cheese, at 473.9 million pounds, was down 1.6% from July and up just 0.3% from a year ago. YTD American hit 3.86 billion pounds, up 3.4%.

Italian-style cheeses totaled 510.3 million pounds, down 1.1% from July but up 1.8% from a year ago, with YTD at 4.1 billion, up 2.2%.

Cheddar production slipped to 323.2 million pounds, down 7.6 million or 2.3% from July but up 6.5 million or 2.1% from a year ago. July output was revised up 3.7 million pounds. YTD cheddar hit 2.67 billion, up 5.3% from 2024.

Butter output fell to 173.2 million pounds, down 5.1 million pounds or 2.9% from July but up 13 million pounds or 8.1% from a year ago. YTD butter output totaled 1.6 billion pounds, up 5.6% from a year ago.

Yogurt production totaled 449.1 million pounds, up 5.9% from a year ago, with output for the year so far at 3.5 billion pounds, up 8.1%.

Hard ice cream, at 66.1 million pounds, was down 5.5% from 2024. YTD production reached 502.8 million pounds, down 1.8% from a year ago.

 Dry whey output came in at 68.3 million pounds, down 1.5 million pounds or 2.2% from July but up 3.1 million pounds or 4.7% from a year ago. YTD whey output hit 557.8 million pounds, down 4.7% from a year ago. Whey stocks, at 49.1 million pounds, were virtually unchanged from July, but they were down 9.4 million or 16.1% from a year ago.

Nonfat dry milk output slipped to 122.8 million pounds, down 5.8 million or 4.6% from July but up 7.9 million pounds or 6.8% from a year ago. NFDM YTD came in at 1.2 billion pounds, up 0.4% from 2024. Stocks fell to 233.5 million pounds, down 4.1 million or 1.7% from July but up 22.1 million pounds or 10.4% from 2024.

Skim milk powder production slipped to 42.3 million pounds, down 2.1 million pounds or 4.6% from July and down 6.4 million pounds or 13.1% from a year ago. YTD SMP fell to 325.5 million pounds, down 20.7% from 2024.

The Nov. 21 Daily Dairy Report said, “Whey manufacturers continued to prioritize the production of higher-value products. Production of whey protein isolates rose 11.6% in August, while output of whey protein concentrates (WPC) between 50% and 89.9% protein was up 9.3%. These increases have come at the expense of WPCs with less than 50% protein, production of which tumbled by 30.3% year over year during the month. Volumes of dry whey for human consumption managed to increase by 8.7% in August despite pressures to route the whey stream up the value chain.”

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange dairy markets weakened leading up to the Thanksgiving holiday. The Cheddar blocks closed Wednesday at $1.47 per pound, down 8 cents on the shortened week, the lowest since April 4, 2024, and 17.25 cents below a year ago. The barrels were unchanged all three days, holding at $1.5825, 2.25 cents below a year ago but 11.25 cents above the blocks.

There were nine loads of block traded in the three days and 76 in the month of November, down from 106 in October. There were no barrel sales on the week, the fourth consecutive week with no sales, so none in November compared to just five in October.

Butter fell to $1.43 per pound Tuesday, the lowest since Feb. 12, 2021, but it regained 2 cents Wednesday to close at $1.45, $1.0425 below a year ago. There were 19 sales on the week and 94 for the month, down from 184 in October.

Grade A nonfat dry milk saw its Wednesday close at $1.1425 per pound, 4 cents lower on the week and 25.25 cents below a year ago, with 19 sales on the week and 72 for the month, down from 77 in October.

Even whey lost ground in the short week, slipping to 73.25 cents per pound Wednesday, 2.75 cents lower on the week but still 2.25 cents above a year ago. There were 11 sales on the three days, 21 in the month, up from 16 in October.

Abundant global milk supplies are pressuring dairy prices everywhere, and there’s legitimate concern over 2026 export potential, as the U.S. industry is keenly aware of its importance. Rabobank Senior Dairy Analyst Lucas Fuess stated in the Dec. 1 Dairy Radio Now broadcast that 2025 may be a record year for U.S. dairy exports, cheese and butter in particular, with the exception being nonfat dry milk.

That success was based on U.S. prices being below those in the rest of the world, according to Fuess, but he expects more price alignment in 2026, and sales will be more competitive. “The U.S. will have a decent opportunity to compete with the rest of the world,” he said. “However, every key dairy area will be fighting for those sales.” He doesn’t see a huge decline in 2026 exports, but it might be a little tougher. Butter will be the best positioned if it remains the lowest cost in the world. European and New Zealand butter prices have also fallen, he said.

The USDA announced a new unified New World screwworm website, screwworm.gov, this week. The site “centralizes NWS information available across the federal government and reflects our whole-of-government effort to fight this pest through implementation of Secretary Rollins’ comprehensive 5-pronged plan,” a USDA press release said.

“The Trump administration is leading a whole-of-government effort to protect our nation’s cattle industry from the New World screwworm. To ensure timely and effective communications, this new unified website will be a one-stop shop for all screwworm-related information and will help our stakeholders be better informed as new information comes available,” said Secretary Brooke Rollins. “We are grateful for the robust interagency collaboration, and we continue to work every day with our state and industry partners to implement our screwworm plan. This is a national security priority and it has the full attention of our team.”

In other beef news, America’s largest meat supplier, Tyson Foods, announced it will close one of its largest beef-processing plants in Lexington, Nebraska. The move will certainly not help an industry facing a shortfall in cattle and rising consumer prices. Tyson blamed supply and demand imbalances, high input costs and efforts to improve overall operational efficiency, according to its website, and said production will be increased at its other beef facilities.

Agriculture Secretary Rollins also announced this week the USDA’s intent to purchase up to $30 million in fresh fruit to support American farmers and producers and to distribute to food banks and nutrition assistance programs across the country. No mention of any dairy products was included.

Tuesday’s Global Dairy Trade Pulse auction saw 5.8 million pounds of product sold, up from 5.5 million in the Nov. 11 event. The prices on both skim milk and whole milk powder were down.