Milk output is strong in Central region

The “Mielke” Market Weekly

Powdered milk, Grade A nonfat, remained the shining star this week at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. After setting a new record high last Friday at $2.1150 per pound, it kept climbing this week and hit $2.20 Friday, another record, and $1.0275 above a year ago. There were 14 sales on the week. Hard to believe it started 2026 at $1.1750.

The previous high was $2.11 per pound Dec. 27, 2013, and it also occurred for 20 consecutive weeks in 2007. HighGround Dairy said, “The 2026 record feels very different than those markets, as fundamentals were much different. Although production is increasing year-on-year according to Dairy Market News, spot loads are extremely difficult to find, keeping spot prices elevated.”

Needless to say, these prices will keep U.S. powder on shore. StoneX broker Dave Kurzawski said this market has boggled minds so far in 2026. The last third of a bull market is nearly impossible to forecast, but it appears as though the structural issues that helped to tighten the NFDM this year remain in place here in mid-April. The spot market, trading at a significant premium to the futures markets, is signaling anyone to clear inventories and bring product to market. The rub is that there is no incentive to build inventories precisely at the time we need them most. Said another way, we’ve got to get to the place where the bid for powder dries up.

CME block Cheddar slipped to $1.57 per pound Thursday but closed Friday at $1.5775, unchanged on the week and 25.75 cents below a year ago after losing 9.50 cents the previous week. The barrels held all week at $1.5750 per pound, 26.50 cents below a year ago. Sales totaled 22 loads of block and no barrel.

Dairy Market News said milk output is strong in the Central region and spot volumes are plentiful. Class III spot prices ranged mid-week from $8-under to $2-under class. A few cheesemakers reported downtime for maintenance this week and in the coming weeks and were offering milk below-class prices. Cheese output is strong overall; however, some processors ran additional production on the weekends to work through the volumes of milk. Domestic cheese demand was unchanged and contacts said export interest is steady to higher.

Milk production is plentiful enough in the West to keep cheese production stable and cheese manufacturing is filling contractual orders in steady fashion. However, spot load availability tightened this week. Sellers note quieter domestic sales with an industry conference taking place this week. Demand from international buyers was stronger, but contacts reported neither bearish nor bullish market tones for the week, according to DMN.

Butter saw its Friday finish at $1.69 per pound, down 5.75 cents on the week, the lowest since Feb. 11, 2026, and 65.25 cents below a year ago on 47 sales.

Cream production was unchanged this week in the Midwest, according to DMN, and contacts said spot loads were becoming more available. Inventories remain somewhat snug. Spot demand from Class II and III processors was steady, but churning interest remains lighter. Butter makers continue to use cream from within their network or contract purchases to run busy schedules. Contacts report softening retail demand, but food service sales are steady. Export demand is strong, as U.S. product remains competitively priced. Spot purchasers say loads are available, but inventories are not excessive, said to DMN.

Western reports say milk and cream production continue to supply more than ample volumes for butter manufacturers, and plant intakes are meeting expectations. Spot cream is available, but more dairy commodity manufacturers are pulling on the supply. Class II production is strong, particularly for cottage cheese. Churns continue to be active seven days a week. Domestic butter demand varies from steady to strong. Demand from international buyers is strong, but transportation costs are holding some sales activity back, said DMN.

Dry whey fell to 68 cents per pound Thursday but closed Friday at 69 cents, 1.50 cents lower on the week but 20.75 cents above a year ago. There were four sales.

Checking demand, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s latest dairy supply and utilization report showed February total cheese utilization hit 1.178 billion pounds, up 5.2% from February 2025. Domestic usage was up 2.8%, with exports totaling 128.8 million pounds, up 30.1% from a year ago, thanks to U.S. competitive prices. HighGround Dairy said it’s a monthly record, seconds all-time on a 30-day adjusted basis, and most of the credit goes to record exports.

Butter usage hit 203.2 million pounds, up 20.1%, with domestic use hitting 180.9 million pounds, up 14.7%. Exports at 22.3 million were up 93.9%, again thanks to low U.S. prices.

Nonfat/skim milk powder utilization totaled 182.7 million pounds, up 10.3%. Domestic use hit 67.3 million pounds, up 14.7%, while exports, at 115.4 million, were up 8.0%. HighGround said the elevated usage in January and February, both domestically and internationally, explains the run up in CME prices.

Dry whey disappearance climbed to its highest February level since 2021, according to HGD, hitting 71.9 million pounds, up 25.5%. Domestic use was up 8.4%. International usage was up 36.7%, the largest year over year gain since December 2020, says HGD, adding that domestic whey utilization was up after six consecutive months of decline.

Fluid milk sales were down again, but the slippage was not as great as the month before. The USDA’s latest data showed packaged February sales at 3.360 billion pounds, off 0.4% from February 2025, which followed a 2.3% drop in January.

Conventional product sales totaled 3.1 billion pounds, down 0.5% from a year ago. Organic sales, at 242 million, were up 0.4% from a year ago and represented a typical 7.2% of total milk sales in the month.

Whole milk sales totaled 1.2 billion pounds, up 2.9% from a year ago and up 2.2% for the 2-month period. Whole milk represented a typical 36.7% of total sales for the month.

Skim milk sales, at 128 million pounds, were down 10.3% from a year ago and year to date.

Packaged fluid sales in the 2-month period totaled 7.1 billion pounds, down 1.4% from 2025. Conventional product sales totaled 6.6 billion, down 1.3% from a year ago. Organic products, at 503 billion pounds, were down 2.7% but represented 7.1% of total milk sales for the year so far. The figures represent consumption in federal market orders which account for about 92% of total fluid sales in the U.S. About 7.5% of U.S. fluid sales are consumed in schools.

The USDA Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook, issued April 15, mirrored milk price and production projections in the April 9 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.

It also said, “Recent data on dairy cow inventories and weaker-than-expected slaughter support an increase in the expected average number of milk cows in 2026. The dairy herd is projected to peak in the second quarter at 9.615 million head,” according to the Outlook, “and gradually decline in the second half of the year. The dairy herd is forecast to average 9.610 million head in 2026, 40,000 head more than last month’s projection.” The 2026 forecast for milk per cow was lowered 35 pounds to 24,485 pounds.

“Domestic butter and cheese are expected to remain price competitive in international markets throughout 2026. With strong export gains across most dairy products in February, forecasts for dairy product exports were revised upward. Higher export volumes are projected for cheese, butter and dry whole milk,” said to the Outlook.

“Dairy domestic use forecasts were revised downward. On a milk-fat basis, domestic use was forecast at 222.2 billion pounds, 1.2 billion pounds lower than the previous month’s projections. On a skim solids basis, domestic disappearance was forecast at 192.1 billion pounds, a 500-million-pound reduction from last month’s projections. The reductions in domestic use forecasts align with higher price projections for Cheddar cheese and NDM,” said USDA.

A new report from CoBank said, “The U.S. economy has continued to perform reasonably well despite a growing constellation of warning signs. Buoyed by an escalating stock market in January and February and massive investments in artificial intelligence, U.S. GDP (gross domestic product) likely grew above 2% in the first quarter as the unemployment rate held around 4.3% and consumers maintained spending growth above 2%.”

However, the report said, “Surging energy costs and extreme volatility in oil markets resulting from the ongoing Middle East conflict could shift the trajectory of the U.S. economy for the remainder of the year.”

“Despite historic levels of domestic oil production, U.S. fuel prices still react quickly to disruptions abroad, especially in the Middle East, the world’s leading region for proven oil reserves and spare production capacity. Increased exports of premium-priced U.S. light, sweet crude oil have created tight domestic links to the global market, meaning jumps in global replacement costs quickly flow through to U.S. pump prices.”

The report also said, “Rural communities are hit harder by rising gasoline and diesel prices because fuel is a larger and less flexible part of daily life and the local economy. Longer driving distances, limited public transportation and heavy reliance on diesel-intensive activities like farming, freight and construction mean price spikes show up quickly in household budgets and business costs.”

“Higher diesel prices also raise the cost of moving food and goods into rural areas, pushing up local prices and amplifying the economic hit compared with urban areas that have more alternatives and competition,” said Teri Viswanath, lead power, energy and water economist with CoBank. “More broadly, the effects of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the stepped-up attacks on energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf could be long-lasting and have probably not been fully priced into U.S. consumer markets.”

HighGround Dairy’s Cara Murphy echoes the economic concerns and warned that consumer sentiment has hit an all-time low. “Over the past year, Americans have faced a barrage of volatility from tariff announcements to layoffs, sticky inflation and now a war with Iran. The U.S. economy barely grew in the fourth quarter of 2025, as the Commerce Department revised its GDP estimate down once again, falling from an advanced estimate of 1.4%, to 0.7% and now just 0.5%.”

“Growth in consumer spending, which accounts for 70% of U.S. GDP, was downgraded as the U.S. government shutdown took a toll on American households. But 2026 is not off to a much better start. Macroeconomic headwinds weigh on consumer finances as Americans now brace for another year of difficulties,” said Murphy.

“The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey marked the lowest level ever recorded in the 70-year history of the survey in April 2026 at just 47.6. Sentiment declined across all ages, income ranges and political parties, with every component of the index sinking compared to the prior month. One-year expected business conditions plunged 20% from March and now sit 6% below the April 2025 reading, a month that was pressured lower by President Trump’s tariff announcements. Assessments of personal finances declined 11% from March, with consumers expressing a substantial increase in concerns over high prices and weaker asset values. With this, the year-ahead inflation expectations jumped from 3.8% in March to 4.8% in April, the largest 1-month increase since April 2025,” says Murphy.

Dairy culling remains ahead of a year ago. The USDA’s latest data shows 50,400 cows sent to slaughter the week ending April 4, down 2,200 from the previous week but 1,100 or 2.2% above that week a year ago. Year to date, 787,700 head had been culled, up 44,800 head or 6.0% from a year ago.

The USDA’s latest crop progress report shows 5% of the U.S. corn crop has been planted, as of the week ending April 12, up 1% from a year ago and 1% ahead of the 5-year average. Texas leads the top 18 states with 63% planted, 1% ahead of a year ago, followed by Tennessee at 42%, 36% ahead of a year ago.

Soybean plantings were at 6%, 4% ahead of a year ago as well as the 5-year average. Mississippi showed 39% planted, 25% ahead of a year ago, followed by Tennessee at 36% planted, 31% ahead of a year ago.

This week’s Global Dairy Trade Pulse saw 6.3 million pounds of product sold, up from 6.1 million March 31. Prices were lower on anhydrous milkfat and butter and higher on skim milk and whole milk powder.

StoneX analyst Dustin Winston said, “New Zealand weather, and thus pasture growth, has been somewhat counter seasonal and more supportive than normal. The pasture growth index is currently well above last season and the 5-year average. This would suggest that milk production should continue to remain strong for the season.”